Good morning, traders. Bitcoin
made a strong move up over night and is back above the psychological $4000 level. So far, we are watching price do exactly what I said I wouldn't be surprised to see it do a few days back -- the initial drop and subsequent rise. I warned traders against shorting on that drop for anything more than a quick buck. That doesn't guarantee that we won't see price head toward $3600 before moving higher, but at this point it is on the bears to show up and do work, and if they don't then the liquidations/short covering as price surpasses this current level could catapult price through the ATH
diagonal resistance and into the $4200/$4300 cluster of shorts. With Bitmex March futures
contracts expiring in two days (vertical red line), will we see price get rejected at that resistance or pump through it? Bitmex order books are showing bids at about 10% over asks within $200 range around price and growing. As the spread increases to the $1000 range, bids growth outpaces asks at an exponentially greater rate. This suggests that traders are looking long overall, but until the break through the $4200/$4300 level there remains a chance of a retest of $3600.
has accelerated today and we still have just under half of the day left before the candle closes, so lots of time to see volume
increase even more. Price has found resistance at the short term daily diagonal resistance from February 24th this morning but appears to be consolidating just under it rather than retracing at this time. A push through the cluster of resistance at this level within the next two days should give price a nice boost up. Daily Stoch RSI
bounced out of oversold today and is showing a bullish
cross if price can hold this level or higher through the daily close. Daily RSI
at 60 and nearing a break of its own descending resistance. We need to see price break the March 21st swing high at $4055.35 to negate the possible hidden bearish
divergence forming on the 4H MACD
histogram. In doing so, price will need to move up substantially to overcome possible bearish
divergence on the 4H MACD
, but as mentioned above this is likely if price can make it through the nearby cluster of resistance. Shorter term, I am looking for a break above the local 4H TR
with a target of the top of the ascending red channel. The two blue horizontal lines are the swing highs that, if closed above, signal significantly increased likelihood of a push toward $5000.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
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