Around 10 days ago I mentioned that the BTC
price will go into the $4,500. Today it is again on 'the table' and I will reveal those technical aspects why I think so!
The recent consistency on the Weekly chart is pretty impressive, currently running the sixth week while we may get a green candle. Consistency means that the FOMO (fear of missing out) players might kick in at some point which will help to guide the price higher but okay, let the mid-term technical analysis speaks for itself.
First of all, why I think that this scenario is again on the 'table' is the recent price action, actually, yesterday's candle close which was a bullish candlestick pattern Morning Star:
Two bottoms (15. Dec 2018 and 7. Feb 2018) are formed with Morning Star candlestick
patterns, yes, they are not textbook examples but you will understand what I mean.
Secondly, this Morning Star candlestick
pattern ends above the historically worked trendline
), it ends up above the round number $4,000, and it got a close above the EMA100!
Now let's count those criteria which will help to guide the price upwards to the blue box which is around $4,500!
ABC Equal Waves
Pullbacks and throwbacks consist usually with waves and currently, the ABC
wave theory might guide us into the $4,500. So, the ABC
perfect wave scenario is equal waves and currently, there are two ABC
pullbacks showing that the price may find a next strong resistance just at the mentioned level.
The bigger ABC Waves (dark red)
The first wave starts from 2018 low and ends up 24. December (point A), a throwback (point B) and currently it is going from B into the C point which is around the $4,500 and the equal means that - from 2018 low to A point is $1,111 and from B to C is $1,111.
The smaller ABC waves (yellowish)
I started to count this pattern from 29. January and it shows also that the C point is again around the $4,500.
So, those were the waves signs which will guide us into the higher levels and if it reaches there then it would be a perfect short area but that's not all...
As You see, then inside the blue box (the area where the price may reach and the area where all signs come together) are multiple lines which all matching with levels around $4,500 and from Fibonacci perspective is there two extension levels and one retracement level.
1. The bigger Fibonacci Extension
level is pulled from the last years bottom at 15. December to 24. December high, from there we get Fib. Ext. level and the 127% (-27%) is around $4,500 ($4,539)
2. The second one is pulled from 29. January to 24. February and extension level 127% (-27%) is again around the 4.5k ($4,424)
1. This is more for the short trades but anyways, the retracement level is pulled from 7. November 2018 (just before the drop below the well-known 6k level) to 2018 low and the 38% retracement level is exactly inside the blue box ($4,432)!
The parallel channel projection
The major counter-trendline is pulled from the bottom (black trendline
), copy/paste, drag it above the prices and you get a channel. Currently this is a bit sloppy but still, I think we can give here a slight percentage of error variation because of the manipulations and we get also a channel upper trendline
projection into this area!
If the price slowly starts to go upwards then the 200EMA will also start to close the gap between the blue box and we can count this also as a resistance mark which will be a sign to short around the $4,500.
SUMMARY: If this is scenario doesn't work out then hopefully, it was a bit educational to You! ;)
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Have a nice day,
*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only!