Good morning, traders. We saw price push through resistance over night as expected, when 4H RSI
breached its own resistance, but supply continues to attempt to halt the momentum. This is the first time price has been able to breach the ATH
diagonal resistance line which makes it a significant move. In doing so, price has also left the very large descending wedge
which has been printing throughout the entire correction. Based on the height of the wedge
, that would ultimately give us a target of around $14,600. My initial target, however, remains the top of the ascending channel/4H R3 pivot
(right under the daily R1 pivot
). In regards to Elliott Wave
counts, that should complete this 5th wave up and signal a small retracement as price prints the wave 2 of the larger degree. I will be looking for that pullback to target the S1-S2 pivot
The move up to complete this small wave 5 would also put price right around the February 24th swing high of $4190. Of course, right above that, looms the December 24th swing high of $4236.84. A move above that one gives us the first higher high since the ATH
in December 2017 and signals a possible bullish trend
in progress. CME Bitcoin futures
expire today which could provide an increase in activity within an hour of it doing so. If the resistance that Bitcoin
has been meeting in the $4000 range is due to futures
short positions, as I have posited a few times before (and makes sense considering the February expiration saw price at $3950) then there would likely be an attempt to push price down right before the close in order to limit their losses or even make a tiny bit of profit. More importantly, if that's the case, then the overhead resistance that's kept price in check should no longer be an issue after today. CME futures
expire at 11:00 a.m. CST (4 p.m. UTC
). So, will price be able to hit our target? If it does, it seems more likely that we will see a sharp move up followed by a sharp move down as bulls are trapped for liquidity to get price below $3950 at expiry.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
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