As discussed, a new update regarding the Bitcoin
TA Iâ€™m posting here on TradingView.
Is my bias shifted a bit? Well, short term itâ€™s a bit shifted. My main perspective was that we were dropping downwards after rejecting around the downtrend line, however that bounce at $3,900 on the bottom of the upwards channel confirmed that weâ€™re not going down soon.
However, some things have to be considered.
- First of all, I donâ€™t know why everyone is relating the breakout to â€˜theâ€™ breakout of the bearmarket, as the blue line is a line with 1 contact point. It started from the top & touched at the last high around $6,500, after which weâ€™ve dropped significantly. Only one contact point, which is nothing.
The line thatâ€™s more important to me is the pink line, which is basically the main line since the tops around the capitulation in February. The line has 6-7 contact points and is constantly used as the rejection line in the bearmarket. For me end of bearmarket is clearly when weâ€™ve broken that one down.
- The sentiment is extremely bullish
at this point in which Iâ€™m feeling itâ€™s a timetravel back towards 2017. Please bear in mind that the majority is mostly wrong and therefore we still have to be cautiously bearish
- The volume
is still weak and not there on the upwards movements. Have to agree that the slightest upwards push weâ€™ve had in the past 24 hours produced some upwards momentum, however itâ€™s not a massive move still.
So, as weâ€™re seeing a small altseason, whatâ€™s my main scenario still? (This scenario is written down since December â€™18 and still valid as my main scenario).
- Slight upwards/sideways continuation of Bitcoin
till end of April.
- This results in the first altseason, as alts pop when Bitcoin
is stabilizing. Given the fact that the drawdowns in altcoins are very big, the upwards pushes (gaps between support and resistances levels) could easily lead to 100-200% profits during these times, which weâ€™ve seen on Cardano as well.
- May/June Bitcoin
final push down towards the bottom (possibly $2,400, but weâ€™ll have to see).
- After that the major altseason starts, as alts have dropped down to the level they are currently breaking out and retesting that + resulting in an upwards trendline
. This will end up in a major altseason during July â€“ September, as the next pushes are even bigger than the previous one.
- After September beginning of the new uptrend in Bitcoin
and bullmarket marked by the bottom in May/June on Bitcoin
. This could also be through ETF
approval or me finishing my study.
So, whatâ€™s my main scenario at this point? Generally Iâ€™m leaning towards calmth on BTC
and upwards grind in the channel towards $4,400-4,500. Iâ€™m not expecting that weâ€™re breaking the upper resistane area around $4,200-4,400 at this point and Iâ€™m expecting that weâ€™re rejecting there.
Could we be breaking upwards? Yes we can, however Iâ€™d like to see a clear volume
breakout move of that level + retest before considering bullishness. A trap towards $4,700-4,800 is still very likely to be coming around (a fakeout). Especially still given many bearish
indicators at this point we have to be calm on the perspectives and therefore my main scenario is the one written above.
Also in bottom forming I find it quite likely to be making one more slight bottom (could be the spring) in which weâ€™re confirming the bullish
divergences and liquidity beneath these levels. Iâ€™m not expecting $1,000 or $1,300 and have never expected that.
Cheers, back on Sunday with an altcoin chart!