Based on technical analysis
with the medium-term (daily) trading horizon, the trend on BTC/USD is UPWARD and is accelerating.
The price had gained momentum on Mar 26, when the short-term correction downwards was ended, and the price bounced off the lower trendline
of an ascending trend channel, as shown on the chart. We expect an upward trend to continue of the medium-term and see two price targets on the horizon:
- $4,250 level - The first significant resistance
- $4,500 level - The second significant resistance
We recommend traders to use these price levels as a take-profit target for long positions in BTC/USD.
Technical indicators of Trend: Determining the market direction
To estimate the trend direction for BTC/USD, we use a combination of two exponential moving averages:
- 7-days EMA
to assess the short-term trend,
- 30-days EMA
to determine the medium-term sustainable trend, and
- The MACD
indicator to evaluate, whether the trend is gaining momentum.
This simple, yet very effective combination of trend analysis tools gives us the following signals for Bitcoin:
(7) is growing (is upward sloping). This means that the short-term trend is upwards.
(30) is also growing, which implies that the medium-term trend is up. Also, it reinforces the short-term trend signal upwards, generated by EMA
(30) is the primary trend indicator in our analysis.
- The difference between the two EMAs - the MACD
indicator - is expanding and the MACD
line is above the Signal line, which means that the trend is accelerating.
So, based on trend analysis we conclude that BTC/USD is in an uptrend mode, confirmed by both quick and slows EMAs, and, more importantly, the price gains momentum. Now is a good time for active traders to open a long position on BTC/USD to take advantage of the expected rally towards $4,500.
Technical indicators of Volatility: Determining an Entry Point
oscillator (5,3,3), plotted on a daily timeframe
, is increasing. This means that the prevailing medium-term trend is upward.
oscillator (5,3,3), plotted on the H4 timeframe, has approached an overbought range and is headed downward. This means that the short-term correction is possible, after which the prevailing medium-term trend upward is expected to resume.
If you are a conservative trader, you should wait until the Stoch
(5,3,3) on H4 returns to the oversold range and then enter long (buy).
Currently, the essential pattern, present on a daily chart
of BTC/USD, is an ascending trend channel. The trendlines
of this channel slope in an upward direction, within which the price has been consistently making higher highs and higher lows over the past 1.5 months. This dynamic represents a strong continuation pattern.
Significant Support and Resistance: Price Targets
There are two significant resistance levels, in which active traders should be interested right now: $4,250, and the far one at $4,500. These levels are suitable take-profit targets for a medium-term long position in BTC/USD.
The Actual Trade Signal
Today the following signal is active:
- Buy Bitcoin
- Stop-Loss: $3,900
- Take-Profit: $4,500
- Forecasted P&L: +$3,500 or +8.5% per 1 Lot with 10x Leverage
- Risk/Reward Ratio: 1.4x
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This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any cryptocurrency or cryptocurrency product. Monfex accepts no responsibility for any consequences resulting from the use of this material. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.