Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Today, we're going to take a look at some short term price movement on the chart, to assess where the market currently stands. So, without further ado, let's get right to it!
Looking at the daily BTC
chart, we can see that BTC
has quietly broken above a few important resistance levels. First off, price broke above the falling black trendline
, which has acted as rock solid resistance since May 5th, 2018. So, that alone is a major change, where powerful resistance has been surpassed. Unfortunately, it was done on light volume
. That can be explained by the fact that additional resistance remains just above that black trendline
, and market participants aren't yet willing to jump in. We need to see some more of these resistance levels fall, if price is going to rally up toward the 5000 or 6000 level.
Looking again at the price movement after the breakout above the black trendline
, we can see that the 150 MA (in light blue) has also been quietly surpassed. Furthermore, we can see that BTC
was able to peek above the top of the pink triangle. However, it has now returned back below it, and the current candle is in the form of a doji
star. So, there is clearly a bit of indecision here, as traders watch the market creep above important resistance levels.
Honestly, I'm not surprised that the black trendline
was taken out. You can see in my previous analyses that I believed that this trendline
would fall, and it did. Admittedly, I thought it would happen slightly lower than 4100, but it has happened nonetheless. This price movement is currently inline with my view that we are likely to continue to chop sideways, unless the 4200-4400 area is surpassed. There are a lot of people who believe that BTC
is going much lower, but if it were, the market would have probably been rejected at that massive resistance level
on the falling black trendline
. Clearly, that didn't happen. So, the probability that Bitcoin
will move sideways or higher, is now technically greater than the probability that we will see lower lows in the market. With that said, we can't forget that we are still below some powerful resistance levels. Until those levels are taken out (4200-4400) I believe that BTC
will probably take a breather, as it starts to fall toward the 61.8% retrace on my chart. Obviously, if the 4200-4400 range is surpassed, that would quickly change things to a more bullish
outlook, from the short-term neutral view that I currently have.
Major resistance has been surpassed, but additional resistance remains overhead. A failure to surpass that remaining overhead resistance, would greatly increase the likelihood that BTC
will continue to chop sideways for quite some time.
Interestingly, the SEC has just delayed it's decision for the Bitcoin ETF
, after a leaked interview revealed that the SEC Commissioner believed that regulators would approve the ETF
proposal. So, I wouldn't be surprised, from a fundamental standpoint, to see the market cool off and grind sideways, until more bullish
news emerges. The SEC proposal has been delayed until at least May 16th. So, I could see how that could cause investors to wait for a final decision, before pushing the market significantly higher. A Bitcoin ETF
will bring significant amounts of liquidity into the BTC
market, providing a new investment avenue for market participants, including institutional investors.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***